Since the Supreme Court ruled that states won’t be required under the health law to expand Medicaid, Washington has been buzzing with estimates about the numbers of poor people who could be left uninsured. But the numbers so far have been inflated, because they included both those who would become eligible for the first time and those who already are eligible for Medicaid – and will still qualify – even if their state passes on the Medicaid expansion.

Today, the Urban Institute released a more detailed estimate with state breakdowns that looks only at those likely to be left uninsured if a state chooses not to expand Medicaid. According to the institute, 11.5 million of 15.1 million adults who are potentially eligible for Medicaid under the health law wouldn’t qualify either for that coverage or for federal subsidies to purchase private insurance through state online insurance marketplaces without an expansion.

Florida’s Republican Gov. Rick Scott said in a news release July 1 that his state won’t expand its Medicaid program, and governors or state officials in at least seven other Republican-led states, including Texas, Louisiana and Wisconsin, have said they likely won’t.