South Africa’s Population Growth Expected To Decrease by 12 Million by 2015 Because of HIV/AIDS, Study Says
South Africa's projected population growth is expected to be reduced by 12 million by 2015 because of HIV/AIDS, according to a study released Monday by the University of South Africa's Bureau of Market Research, the South African Press Association reports (South African Press Association, 1/20). The report, titled "The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS on Provinces and Living Standards Measure Groups in South Africa" and written by BMR economic demographer Carel van Aardt, was based on the results of 12 studies conducted since 1996. The study found that South Africa's population without HIV/AIDS would have totaled 61 million by 2015, but because of the epidemic, the population is only expected to grow to 49 million. In 2000-2001, approximately 40% of adult deaths were AIDS-related, compared to 9% in 1995-1996. The study also found that the province of KwaZulu-Natal is expected to have the highest number of annual AIDS-related deaths, followed by Gauteng and the Eastern Cape, two of the most highly populated provinces. People between ages 15 and 49 will be hit particularly hard, with 350,000 people in KwaZulu-Natal and 500,000 people in Gauteng in the 15 to 49 age group expected to die of AIDS-related diseases by 2006. In addition, HIV/AIDS will also decrease life expectancy, according to the report. In KwaZulu-Natal, the life expectancy is projected to be 33 by 2010, and in Mpumalanga, the life expectancy is projected to be 34 by 2010. The study also looks at the impact of HIV/AIDS on the different living standard measure (LSM) groups in South Africa (BMR release, 1/19).This is part of the KHN Morning Briefing, a summary of health policy coverage from major news organizations. Sign up for an email subscription.